Issue Brief: A Little of the Old, a Little of the New: A Fresh Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe

The military relationship between Russia and NATO is far less stable than political leaders may assume and poses increasing risks in particular sub-regions. This paper offers a new approach to Conventional Arms Control (CAC), taking into account how a variety of European actors perceive their threat environment and what they worry about most.

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Abstract

The ongoing NATO–Russia confrontation has increased the risk of military conflict, particularly in Europe. This includes regional force concentrations and options for their reinforcement, LRS capabilities, and naval forces. It focuses on the Baltic and Black Sea subregions as a matter of priority. To show why a new approach to CAC is necessary, this paper first addresses the issues of threat perceptions and how military capabilities can drive conflict and escalation. It then offers solutions by outlining the necessary elements of future CAC agreements and possible negotiation formats. .

Policy recommendations

A fresh approach to restarting conventional arms control in Europe should aim to define building blocks for a series of agreements and arrangements that can support and enhance stability and security in Europe. Such instruments should help assuage prospective adversaries’ fears of one another’s military capabilities, thus limiting the risk of conflict and escalation. They are intended to take into account new security and technological developments and to give prospective parties a certain amount of flexibility as they negotiate.

Although updates to Europe-wide security mechanisms would be valuable, most of the newer agreements described in this paper are sub-regional, reflecting a security dynamic that has changed since the days of the Cold War. This means that in many cases negotiations would involve those states that are most concerned rather than every country on the continent. Some of these states are NATO members, some are not. All participate in the OSCE. Even if the agreements are sub-regional, however, their implications will affect the security of the region as a whole. In this way, a patchwork approach to CAC can begin to lay the groundwork for a broader and more durable future European security order.

Authors

  • Olga Oliker

    Olga Oliker is Program Director for Europe and Central Asia at International Crisis Group. Prior to joining the Crisis Group, she directed the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and held various research and management roles at the RAND Corporation, including as Director of the Center for Russia and Eurasia.

  • Wolfang Zellner

    Wolfgang Zellner is Senior Research Fellow at the IFSH. From 1994 to 2019, he worked in different capacities within the IFSH, since 2005 as Deputy Director of the IFSH and Head of the IFSH’s Centre for OSCE Research (CORE).

  • Steven Pifer

    Steven Pifer is a non-resident senior fellow with the Brookings Institution and an affiliate with the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Pifer is a retired foreign service officer with over 25 years of experience with the State Department, where he worked on U.S. relations with the former Soviet Union and Europe, as well as arms control and security issues. He served as deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs with responsibilities for Russia and Ukraine (2001-2004), U.S. ambassador to Ukraine (1998-2000), and special assistant to the President and senior director for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia on the National Security Council (1996-1997).

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