Issue Brief: New START: Extension under what Circumstances?

The New Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty (New START) is at risk of expiring on February 5, 2021. At the same time, there has been no substantial progress in negotiations on a follow-on nuclear arms control agreement.

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Abstract

The Trump administration has offered a short-term extension of New START – should Russia agree to a freeze on all U.S. and Russian nuclear warhead stockpiles including non-strategic warheads and to be monitored by unspecified verification measures. This could pave the way to preserving New START, along with an agreement on a politically binding framework for a future agreement. But time appears too short to resolve all questions about the definition and verification of such an arrangement. With this bleak picture, what is the way forward to preserve strategic stability? What realistic scenarios and options exist to prevent a new arms race between Russia and the United States?

Authors

  • Anatoli S. Diakov

    is a Professor of Physics and a Researcher at the Center for Energy and Security Studies (CE-NESS) and a leading Researcher at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO).

  • Götz Neuneck

    Götz Neuneck is a Senior Research Fellow at the IFSH and formerly its deputy Director and Head of the interdisciplinary research area “Arms Control and Emerging Technologies”. He is a Professor at the Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics, and Natural Sciences at the University of Hamburg. A physicist by training, he earned his Dr. rer. nat. at the University of Hamburg, Faculty of Mathematics. His research areas include nuclear arms control and disarmament, ballistic missile defense (BMD), missile proliferation, cyber security, non-proliferation of military technology, and outer space technologies.

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  • Lynn Rusten

    Lynn Rusten is the Vice President, Global Nuclear Policy Program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). Before joining NTI in March 2017, Rusten held government positions including senior director for arms control and nonproliferation on the White House National Security Council staff; and in the Department of State served as the chief of staff for the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation and as a senior advisor in the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance (AVC) where she led the interagency backstopping process supporting the negotiation and ratification of the New START Treaty. She has also served as a professional staff member on the Senate Armed Services Committee and as Director of the Committee on International Security and Arms Control of the National Academy of Sciences.