Russia’s Nuclear Posture: Modernization and the State of Arms Control
| Issue Brief: Russia's Nuclear Posture
As part of the modernization process of the Russian Army, Moscow has ordered a significant qualitative overhaul of the Russian nuclear forces in all three legs of the Russian triad. While Moscow is modernizing, its overall arsenal of nuclear warhead still exceeds massively any reasonable security needs. Efforts at reducing the Russian arsenal in a mutually agreed manner with the United States beyond New START are experiencing considerable problems. The fallout from the Ukraine conflict has already damaged bilateral relations. There is the danger that the standstill in U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control relations might severely affect the NPT regime.
Abstract
This issue brief analyzes Russia’s nuclear posture, meaning the composition of the Russian strategic triad, its non-strategic nuclear arms, and Moscow’s current nuclear doctrine. Although Moscow’s policy of limited transparency on both capabilities and doctrines makes it hard to assess its nuclear posture precisely, a number of open sources1 allow for a good overview. Since large parts of the Russian nuclear deterrent are undergoing modernization, a closer look at the future Russian nuclear architecture is taken. The impacts of Russia’s disarmament obligations under the New START treaty are also examined, particularly as the Russian numbers have gone up in recent months. While there is currently no political sign that Russia will miss the final 2018 New START ceilings, the qualitative modernization and the slow pace of New START implementation is a worrisome signal for nuclear disarmament. The consequences of this negative trend might affect the global non-proliferation regime.
